Masonry Magazine February 1986 Page. 35
theWASHINGTONwire...
There will be a lot more conflict and turmoil in the session Congress opened on January 21 than was true in the not-so-peaceful year just ended. That's the view of veteran political observers on Capitol Hill at this time. Finishing up the far-reaching budget and tax-reform proposals begun in 1985 will dominate the lawmakers' agenda during the 99th Congress's home stretch. The work done in December, just before the lawmakers quit, was only a start. Much is still pending to implement Gramm-Rudman and to settle tax reform. Both Congress and the White House will have their eyes on the fall election, with everyone fully aware that the fate of the Reagan Revolution is at risk.
But political considerations don't necessarily foreshadow total legislative deadlock. There will be some progress on major fronts, especially during the year's first half.
The work done in 1985 on key issues was substantial but incomplete. For example, the deficit-cutting bill-passed after such effort and agony was clearly a big achievement. But it still poses some difficult problems. Congress will still have to wrestle with the many spending programs in 1986 if it doesn't want to turn over the power of the purse completely to Reagan. Similarly, the Ways and Means Committee's tax bill covered a lot of ground, although Republican opposition almost shot it down in the House in December. But the President and Chairman Dan Rostenkowski have invested much too much in the issue to let it die without a great deal of serious soul-searching. It faces serious obstacles in the Senate, but reform is by no means dead.
The coming months should show if Ronald Reagan can still call the tune or whether he is a lame duck, respected on Capitol Hill, but not followed by convincing majorities.
Reagan still hopes to shape the budget his way... especially defense spending even though the new Gramm-Rudman law will make this very tough. And he grimly intends to push his own strongly cherished tax-reform version. For their part, the Democrats possess their own agenda to push and preserve. They want to keep non-defense programs and favor protectionist legislation.
The Democrats might even call for tax increases-to reduce the budget deficit without devastating their pet programs-when the alternatives finally are too unpalatable to face.
Don't look for stonewalling between the Reagan Administration and the Democrats on key issues, even though as noted they see things differently. Reagan knows that he needs help from the opposition leadership in the House to get his major legislation, safe enough in the Senate, to final passage. And the Democrats realize that Reagan's enormous and persistent popularity makes it unwise to hit him personally. There's danger attacks may backfire.
In other words, there'll be pressure to reach compromise agreements. The President won't get all that he wants. But neither will the Democrats. What each finally ends up with, though, will be a lot better than nothing. What's more, neither wants to come across as obstinate and obstructionist.
To judge by that thumping initial setback on tax reform, the President may have as many fights, and as tough ones, with members of his own party as with those in opposition.
There's still a job to do on budgets for this fiscal year and next. Despite all the hoop-la about Gramm Rudman, it is only a back-up mechanism, to operate after Congress has tried and failed to budget in the usual way. The old procedures hold as long as deficits stay below Gramm-Rudman levels, limiting them to $185 billion this fiscal year, $144 billion in fiscal 1987.
Congress must cut $11 billion from the budget shaping up for 1986... out of every sector excepting debt interest and, of course, Social Security. (This is the budget the lawmakers have been working on since January 1985.) What areas will be hit, assuming that Congress and the President can agree? Defense, to the extent that it stays flat, plus an allowance for inflation-but no 3% hike. And small-business-aid and the Job Corps.
It could be spring before the compromises are enacted. The task won't be so great as to stop Congress from making the fit; so there's a chance that Gramm-Rudman won't be needed, and Reagan won't be called on to do the final cutting job.
The fiscal 1987 deficit should be a very much tougher nut to crack. (This is the one Reagan will send to Congress some time in early February.) Current estimates show a need to cut spending $44 billion from 1986 levels. The battle over whose priorities will prevail-Reagan's or the Democrats will strike a lot of sparks and much heat before the deals finally emerge. Reagan's top priority will be to stave off a cut of $15 billion in defense. He'll ask big slashes in aid to states/cities-housing, mass transit, and fewer loans (including student aid).
The Democrats, though, will want defense to carry its full share of the sacrifices, with less of the necessary cut-backs than Reagan hopes to hack out of the social programs.
It's hard to believe that Congress can make such large cuts itself, though the possibility cannot be denied. (Many members backed Gramm-Rudman from political necessity, with doubts at giving the President such power.)