Masonry Magazine January 1968 Page. 23
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CONGRESS WILL GET VERY LITTLE DONE
AT THIS YEAR'S SESSION-even less than it accomplished in 1967, and far less than in milestone 1966. Politics will dominate the lawmakers' deliberations. It will affect the decisions of both parties increasingly as the November elections approach. Because of this, the Great Society will mark time again, for the second year in a row.
This year will be devoted to holding a hard line on Federal spending. There will be continued efforts to get expenditures back under control. This doesn't mean that total government spending won't rise. But the rise will lag behind revenue.
The President may ask for big programs to rebuild the cities, etc. This is campaign ammunition and wouldn't cost much until programs really got rolling in 1969. But he'll have trouble-from both parties -getting such measures enacted. Many of his pet bills will be cut, or killed, in the maneuvering.
THE REPUBLICANS WILL TRY TO SEIZE THE
INITIATIVE in areas like civil rights, and even on social programs where the effort will be to do things at less cost. GOP leaders want to project a positive image to the voters. But they will be much more successful in blocking the measures they oppose. On this, they will continue to receive help from rebellious southern Democrats.
Now, for the outlook for the legislation you'll be hearing most about what Johnson will propose... and how the Congress will treat his requests. The list is necessarily tentative-more so than is usual at a session's start; work on the 1968 program was delayed by the extra length of the 1967 session.
THE PRESIDENT HAS TRIED TO HOLD HIS
NEW BUDGET DOWN ENOUGH to please the economizers on Capitol Hill, who are firmly in the saddle these days. It hasn't been easy. Too many ongoing programs are reaching a costly stage-education...anti-poverty, etc. And war costs are still rising, if slowly.
But Johnson has had to squeeze the deficit well below this year's, to keep alive hope of the tax increase he wants in order to lessen the danger of a wage-price spiral. This can lead to higher prices on exports, reduced sales abroad, a stepped-up loss of gold-and even, in time, a recession.
THE WHITE HOUSE'S BUDGET ARITHMETIC
HOLDS THE PROMISE of satisfying Congress' minimum demands, officials think. It would allow for some rise in over-all Federal spending from the current year, which ends next June 30. The rise could top $3 billion-even a little more, to be realistic. This assumes the Administration will cut the $4 billion it swore to this year.
The Budget-makers are counting on a "fiscal dividend" of $8 billion or so to help out. This is the extra revenue that the present tax structure will generate as the economy expands.
THE PRESIDENT WOULD STILL REQUIRE A
SURTAX, though, to bring the red ink below $10 billion -a figure that is considered politically acceptable. Here's how: Take this year's deficit-$20 billion...add $4 billion to U.S. spending then subtract the $8 billion dividend and $6 billion in taxes.
THE QUESTION NOW IS WHETHER CON-
GRESS WILL BUY such a fiscal package. After all, Chairman Mills of the Ways and Means Committee has made it clear that he feels this is Congress' last opportunity to curb runaway Budgets. Certainly, the powerful Republican bloc in the House agrees fully on this. But many observers are guessing that Congress will accept a reduced deficit so long as the rise in spending is less than the economy's rate of growth.
A large minority, though, sees no increase voted this year or else a sharply reduced one. Politically, the country will be very close to Election Day by the time a hike is ready for final action. Economically, the sharp surge of the first half may be shooting its last bolt-with a slower second-half pace in sight. In such circumstances, Congress may well balk, out of fear of over-cooling the economy.
CONGRESS WILL PROBABLY START TO
WORK ON TAX REFORM in 1968-as soon as the priority tax-increase issue is settled. Note the key word "start." The hearings and preliminary work will need far too much time for completion at this session which will be shortened by a desire to go home to campaign. But important foundations may be laid for final action in 1969 or in 1970.